Every published research note across the six regional desks, probability-banded, sourced and signed. Filter by region in the desk pages; the most recent are listed first.
Start with the map, then move into the regional stacks below. Each stack keeps the notes in publication order and preserves direct links to every article.
Positioning the bull, the base and the bear.
Own the growth, respect the rates.
Owning a transformation priced in oil.
Short the sovereign, own the champions.
Gilt income, a global index, a supported pound.
Owning the structural story at a better price.
High carry, cheap optionality, election risk.
Defence and infrastructure against the auto drag.
Resilient growth, sticky prices, and a Fed that stopped cutting.
Sub-one-percent growth meets re-accelerating inflation.
A fiscally driven recovery the energy shock keeps undercutting.
Duration when the central bank is the last hawk standing.
The cut cycle that became a hike debate.
Growth throttled by the world's highest real rates.
A non-oil economy outgrowing the barrel.
Holding the line in a stagflationary tilt.
Still the fastest, but no longer flawless.
Government does the work; exports and households sit it out.
Who is buying the euro, and why.
Independence on trial in an election year.
A steady economy held hostage by its politics.
Easing with one eye on the rupee.
Headline down, core up, and an energy shock in the middle.
A deficit at full employment that no one will fix.
A peg that imports the Fed and a lever made of oil.
Consolidating under the gilt market's gaze.
Why it hiked into a war and a slowdown.
A fiscal framework straining at the worst moment.
A monetary reaction function written in OATs.
India is consolidating its fiscal deficit toward 4.3 percent of GDP while sustaining a record public capex push.
Germany's supply side is the real constraint: unemployment at a 15-year high, employment falling, productivity stagnant and a shrinking…
Saudi Arabia runs a deliberate 3.3 percent of GDP deficit on a $350 billion budget with oil below its ~$96 breakeven, funding Vision 2030…
The UK runs a persistent current-account deficit financed by its role as a global financial centre.
US tariffs have reordered trade flows in 2026 without closing the deficit, while a firm dollar and the reserve-currency role keep the…
Brazil's external accounts are its quiet strength: a commodity-driven trade surplus, large reserves and deep ties to China cushion a…
The German Bund curve in mid-2026: 10-year near 2.93 percent, 2-year near 2.63 percent, a barely positive slope, and rising real yields as…
France runs a deficit above 5 percent with debt at 114 percent of GDP and a parliament that cannot pass a budget.
India runs a manageable current-account deficit funded by services exports and remittances, but a firm dollar, an oil-import bill and…
Three twelve-month scenarios for the German economy: a fiscal payoff that crowds in private demand, a base case of thin public-led growth,…
Saudi Arabia's external accounts swing with oil and OPEC+ policy.
The euro near 1.15 against the dollar in mid-2026: a hawkish ECB and a firmer growth narrative support it, while a shrinking trade surplus…
France's external accounts are unremarkable, a modest deficit, world-class luxury and aerospace exports, and tourism, which is exactly why…
Germany's deficit rises to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2026 as defence and the EUR 500 billion fund flow, but a low debt ratio and AAA rating give…
Germany holds AAA with a stable outlook at every major agency in 2026.
Chancellor Merz's CDU-SPD grand coalition governs a Germany where the AfD leads several national polls, defence spending is straining public…
The Merz government has the mandate and the money for structural reform.
Germany's trade surplus fell over 42 billion euros in 2025 as US tariffs hit autos and China turned from customer to competitor.
An Iran-war energy shock collided with Germany's structural power-cost disadvantage in 2026, forcing a state subsidy covering up to half the…
Germany's security pivot, a record 108 billion euro defence budget and a path to NATO's 3.5 percent target, is reshaping its economy, its…
Germany imports 170 billion euros of goods from China and depends on it for critical inputs even as Beijing becomes a competitor.
The tension between Brazil’s new fiscal framework and persistent spending pressure is pushing real interest rates to two-decade highs,…
Latin America holds 40 percent of global copper output and the world’s largest lithium reserves.
Mexico is receiving USD 40 billion in annual FDI while neighbouring economies watch.
Israel's war economy.
The northern front is the real test.
The price of unconditional power.
Argentina's market rebound depends on whether fiscal adjustment can survive politics, reserves pressure, inflation fatigue and social tolerance.
The post-IPO ADNOC complex must be analysed as a state-capital allocation machine: dividends, strategic listings, downstream integration and…
IMF deals reduce near-term tail risk but rarely eliminate recurrence risk.
The BoE's optionality is being constrained by services inflation.
Japan's exit from extraordinary policy is a corridor, not an event.
FDI is a tailwind until labour, power, logistics and permitting become bottlenecks.
France's OAT spread is no longer just a fiscal number; it is a credibility score that prices political fragmentation, deficit delivery and…
China's onshore retail market and offshore institutional market are no longer pricing the same regime.
OPEC+ cohesion is not a press statement; it is a scorecard of fiscal breakevens, spare capacity, enforcement tolerance and geopolitical…
Three scenarios for the second half of 2026.
Semiconductor capex is a boom-bust machine disguised as a secular AI story.
Tariff pass-through is not a constant.
The term premium is not a residual; it is the market's compensation for fiscal supply, inflation uncertainty and central-bank…
Fiscal crises rarely begin with one shocking number.
German small and mid-sized industrial companies are facing a slow recession hidden inside aggregate resilience: energy cost, China…
Trade rerouting is not deglobalisation; it is tariff optimisation.
India's production-linked incentives are no longer a single manufacturing story.
Housing inventory is rising, but absorption remains deeply regional.
FDI saturation point: when does the manufacturing tailwind exhaust?
Saudi Arabia's transformation is best read as a capital-allocation map rather than a single reform story: tourism, logistics, energy…
China's policy language has shifted from aggregate stimulus to targeted transmission.
The dot plot is no longer a point forecast; it is a floor-setting mechanism.
A small cut can be a large signal when it breaks the reaction-function narrative.
The market wants the cut.
LATAM's terms-of-trade cushion is rolling over.