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Latest from the desk.

Desk OpenLondon 14:32 GMTIssue № 1,084Active calls 27Coverage 06 / 06
★ Editor's Note · Latest

The dollar is not strong. Everything else is fragile.

A synchronised loss of policy optionality across the ECB, the BCB and the PBOC. Carry is no longer cheap insurance, and the dispersion within regions now exceeds the dispersion between them.

S. Lindqvist · Editor of the Day

Regional Risk · 30D

NORAM
2.4+0.3
EUR
2.9−0.4
LATAM
3.8+0.5
MENA
1.7+0.7
ASIA
2.2+0.4
CHN
4.5−0.3

Key policy rates

Core PCE · USAMar print
2.6%−0.1pp
Selic · BrazilApr Copom
10.75%unchanged
ECB DFR · EURApr cut
3.50%−25bps
PBOC 1Y LPRApr fixing
3.45%unchanged

Active convictions

04 of 27 shown
EUR · 02▲ LONG
LONG BUND CURVE
ECB cuts 25bps at the June meeting; bund curve steepens 8–10bps into the press conference.
74%
Horizon · 45 daysRev T−2D
MENA · 04▲ LONG
LONG GCC EQUITY
Saudi PIF redeployment lifts Tadawul large-caps ahead of Q3 capex disclosures.
64%
Horizon · 90 daysRev T−5D
CHN · 06▼ SHORT
SHORT CNH
PBOC tolerates controlled depreciation through Q3 as the export channel re-opens.
71%
Horizon · 120 daysRev T−1D
LATAM · 03◆ HOLD
HOLD BR DURATION
Selic on hold through July; fiscal deterioration caps duration-trade upside.
58%
Horizon · 60 daysRev T−7D
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