Europe Desk · 30 notes

The fractured core.

Germany's fiscal turn, France's politics, Britain's stagflationary tilt and the ECB that hiked into a war, Europe across rates, fiscal and FX.

Asset allocation · Bull / base / bear

The call book, positioned.

Europe · Equity & Credit Strategy
Europe 26-23

The DAX barbell

Defence and infrastructure against the auto drag.

2026-06-17 · 17 min read
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Europe · Country Macro Nowcast
Europe 26-32

Britain's nowcast

Sub-one-percent growth meets re-accelerating inflation.

2026-06-17 · 16 min read
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Europe · Country Macro Nowcast
Europe 26-07

Germany's nowcast

A fiscally driven recovery the energy shock keeps undercutting.

2026-06-16 · 18 min read
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Europe · Local Rates / Bonds Strategy
Europe 26-24

Bund strategy

Duration when the central bank is the last hawk standing.

2026-06-16 · 16 min read
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Europe · Central Bank Reaction Function
Europe 26-33

The Bank's hardest job

Holding the line in a stagflationary tilt.

2026-06-16 · 15 min read
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Europe · Growth Engine Breakdown
Europe 26-08

Germany's growth engine

Government does the work; exports and households sit it out.

2026-06-15 · 17 min read
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Europe · FX & Flow Positioning
Europe 26-25

The recovery currency

Who is buying the euro, and why.

2026-06-15 · 15 min read
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Europe · Country Macro Nowcast
Europe 26-27

France's nowcast

A steady economy held hostage by its politics.

2026-06-15 · 16 min read
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Europe · Inflation Regime Monitor
Europe 26-11

Germany's inflation regime

Headline down, core up, and an energy shock in the middle.

2026-06-14 · 17 min read
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Europe · Fiscal Sustainability Monitor
Europe 26-34

The tax-led squeeze

Consolidating under the gilt market's gaze.

2026-06-14 · 16 min read
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Europe · Central Bank Reaction Function
Europe 26-12

The ECB's reaction function

Why it hiked into a war and a slowdown.

2026-06-13 · 18 min read
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Europe · Central Bank Reaction Function
Europe 26-28

The ECB sets the rate, France sets the spread

A monetary reaction function written in OATs.

2026-06-13 · 15 min read
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Europe · Labour, Productivity & Investment
Europe 26-09

The supply side growth forgot

Labour cracks, productivity stalls, and capital waits.

2026-06-12 · 18 min read
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Europe · External Balance Monitor
Europe 26-35

The kindness of strangers

A deficit financed by the City's global role.

2026-06-12 · 15 min read
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Europe · Yield Curve & Real Rates
Europe 26-13

The Bund curve

A benchmark caught between the shock and the supply.

2026-06-11 · 17 min read
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Europe · Fiscal Sustainability Monitor
Europe 26-29

The red zone

A debt problem that only politics can solve.

2026-06-11 · 16 min read
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Europe · 12M Growth Scenarios
Europe 26-10

Germany over twelve months

The fiscal payoff against the structural drag.

2026-06-10 · 17 min read
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Europe · FX Pressure Map
Europe 26-14

The euro's pressure map

A currency held up by rates and weighed by trade.

2026-06-09 · 16 min read
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Europe · External Balance Monitor
Europe 26-30

France's external calm

The accounts that are not the problem.

2026-06-09 · 14 min read
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Europe · Fiscal Sustainability Monitor
Europe 26-15

The 500 billion question

Buying growth, or plugging gaps?

2026-06-08 · 18 min read
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Europe · Sovereign Risk & Ratings
Europe 26-16

The AAA that anchors the euro

Unchanged rating, changing credit story.

2026-06-06 · 16 min read
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Europe · Political Economy Dashboard
Europe 26-17

Germany's political economy

A grand coalition governing against a rising tide.

2026-06-05 · 17 min read
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Europe · Reform & Election Risk
Europe 26-18

Reform and election risk

The supply-side test the money cannot pass alone.

2026-06-03 · 17 min read
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Europe · External Balance Monitor
Europe 26-19

The surplus that is shrinking

When the export engine runs in reverse.

2026-06-02 · 17 min read
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Europe · Commodity & Energy Transmission
Europe 26-20

The energy disadvantage

A structural cost problem the war made acute.

2026-05-30 · 16 min read
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Europe · Geopolitical Stress Map
Europe 26-21

Germany's stress map

The security pivot and its costs.

2026-05-28 · 17 min read
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Europe · Supply Chain & Sanctions Watch
Europe 26-22

The dependency that cuts both ways

De-risking as policy, dependence as reality.

2026-05-26 · 16 min read
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