London Desk · Live · Mayfair

The dollar is not strong. Everything else is fragile.

The London Desk. A synchronized loss of policy optionality across the ECB, the BCB and the PBOC. Carry is no longer cheap insurance, and the dispersion within regions now exceeds the dispersion between them. We read the moves the consensus is not yet pricing.

06Regional desks
240+Reports / yr
12Yrs since MMXIV
£37bnAssets advised
Coverage · Six regions

Macro research, six regions deep.

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Live · Mayfair · London

From the desk, in real time.

View all 27 active convictions →

Key policy rates

ECB DFREurozone · Apr cut3.50%−25bps
SelicBrazil · Apr Copom10.75%unchanged
PBOC 1Y LPRChina · Apr fixing3.45%unchanged
Core PCEUSA · Mar print2.6%−0.1pp

Regional risk · 30D

North America2.4+0.3
Europe2.9−0.4
Latin America3.8+0.5
MENA1.7+0.7
Asia ex-China2.2+0.4
China4.5−0.3
Active convictions · 04 of 27 shown
EUR · 02▲ LONG
Long bund curve

ECB cuts 25bps at the June meeting; bund curve steepens 8–10bps into the press conference.

Horizon · 45 days · Rev T−2D74%
MENA · 04▲ LONG
Long GCC equity

Saudi PIF redeployment lifts Tadawul large-caps ahead of Q3 capex disclosures.

Horizon · 90 days · Rev T−5D64%
CHN · 06▼ SHORT
Short CNH

PBOC tolerates controlled depreciation through Q3 as the export channel re-opens.

Horizon · 120 days · Rev T−1D71%
LATAM · 03◆ HOLD
Hold BR duration

Selic on hold through July; fiscal deterioration caps duration-trade upside.

Horizon · 60 days · Rev T−7D58%
The Sigma Method · Four principles

Research as discipline, not noise.

The full method →
i.

Primary, never derivative

Every report originates from in-region interviews, official datasets and proprietary indicators, never recycled from secondary sources or consensus narratives.

ii.

Calibrated, not loud

Conviction is expressed as probability, horizon and revision history, never as enthusiasm. Each call carries its own track record.

iii.

Sovereign-grade discretion

Embargoed distribution, named seats and bespoke NDAs. Our work is written for allocators and sovereigns who price discretion.

iv.

Cross-regional synthesis

Six desks, one discipline. The signal is in the dispersion between regions, surfaced where single-market desks cannot see it.

Access · Three mandates

Three mandates. One discipline.

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